Your Weekly Update for Monday, March 16, 2026.
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Bill Roller
NMLS #107972
CHARTERED FINANCIAL ANALYST
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERTM
CHARTERED MARKET TECHNICIAN
bill.roller@beaconrwa.com
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Click on the image below to go to https://youtu.be/oRmZWCUBrhc to see the video from March 16 in which Bill Roller presents the financial update for the week.
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Summary
Markets were DOWN again last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was DOWN 1.99% to 46,558.47 while the S&P500 ended DOWN 1.6% to 6,632.19. The Nasdaq Composite FELL 1.26% to 22,105.36. The annual yield on the 30-year Treasury ROSE 15.3 basis point(s) to 4.908%.
Economic Notes:
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March fell to 55.5 (Briefing.com consensus 55.7) from the final reading of 56.6 for February. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 57.0.
The key takeaway from the report is that roughly half of the interviews were conducted before military action in Iran, which spurred a rally in energy prices. Therefore, the Consumer Sentiment Index is likely to be revised lower in the final reading for March.
The Current Economic Conditions Index rose to 57.8 from the final reading of 56.6 for February. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 63.8.
The Index of Consumer Expectations fell to 54.1 from the final reading of 56.6 for February. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 52.6.
Year-ahead inflation expectations remained at 3.4% that was seen in the final reading for February.
Long-run inflation expectations rose/dipped to 3.2% from the final reading of 3.3% for February.
Durable goods orders were flat month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%). Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) after increasing a revised 1.3% (from 0.9%) in December.
The key takeaway from the report is that the flat headline reading masked a solid 0.9% increase in nondefense capital goods orders, which is a proxy for business investment.
New orders for primary metals increased 0.8% after rising 2.4% in December.
New orders for fabricated metal products increased 0.6% after increasing 0.9% in December.
New orders for machinery were up 0.2% after rising 0.3% in December.
New orders for computers and electronic equipment rose 0.8% after jumping 3.4% in December.
Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%) from the advance estimate of 1.4%. The GDP Price Deflator was revised to 3.8% from 3.6% in the advance estimate.
The key takeaway from the report is that growth decelerated notably in Q4 while the Price Deflator was revised higher, which is a disappointing combination.
Personal consumption expenditures increased 2.0%, down from 2.4% in the advance estimate and down from 3.5% in the third quarter. The PCE component contributed 1.33 percentage points to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
Gross private domestic investment was up 3.3% versus up 3.8% in the advance estimate and a flat reading in the third quarter. Gross private domestic investment contributed 0.57 percentage points to growth in the fourth quarter.
Exports decreased 3.3% versus a decrease of 0.9% in the advance estimate and a 9.6% increase in the third quarter. Imports were down 1.1% versus down 1.3% in the advance estimate and down 4.4% in the third quarter.
Government spending decreased 5.8% versus a 5.1% decrease in the advance estimate and a 2.2% increase in the third quarter. Government spending subtracted 1.03 percentage points from growth in the fourth quarter.
Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased 0.4% versus a 1.2% increase in the advance estimate and a 4.5% increase in the third quarter.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 1.9% versus a 1.1% increase in the advance estimate and a 2.8% increase in the third quarter.
The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income decreased to 4.0% from 4.4% in the third quarter.
The PCE Price Index increased 2.9% versus 2.9% in the advance estimate and 2.8% in the third quarter. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.7% versus 2.9% in the third quarter.
Personal Income increased 0.4% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after rising 0.3% in December. Personal spending was also up 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a 0.4% increase in December. The PCE Price Index rose 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%).
On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index increased 2.8% versus 2.9% in December, and the core PCE Price Index increased 3.1%, versus 3.0% in December.
The key takeaway from the report is that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE Price Index, edged up in January, which presents a headwind to rate cut expectations.
The PCE Index for Goods for goods was up 0.3% in January after increasing 0.4% in December. The index was up 1.3% year-over-year in January versus 1.7% in December.
The PCE Price Index for Services was up 0.4% in January after increasing 0.3% in December. The index was up 3.5% year-over-year versus 3.4% in December.
Wages and salaries increased 0.5% month-over-month in January after increasing 0.1% in December.
Rental income was flat month-over-month in January after no change in December.
Personal interest income increased 0.2% month-over-month in January after increasing 0.3% in December. Personal dividend income jumped 2.0% after rising 0.1% in December.
Real disposable income was up 0.7% month-over-month in January after no change in December. Real personal spending was up 0.1% month-over-month after increasing 0.1% in December.
The personal savings rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, rose to 4.5% from 4.0% in December.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 decreased by 1,000 to 213,000 (Briefing.com consensus 215,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 28 decreased by 21,000 to 1.850 million.
The key takeaway from the report is that claims remain just above the 200,000 mark, reflecting a low-firing environment.
The four-week moving average for initial claims decreased by 4,000 to 212,000.
The four-week moving average for continuing claims decreased by 500 to 1,851,500.
The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending February 21 was 2,248,526, an increase of 75,257 from the previous week. Claims filed in the comparable week a year ago totaled 2,265,341.
Market Notes:
The S&P 500 futures are 1.0% above fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are 1.1% above fair value; and the DJIA futures are 0.8% above fair value
Key factors driving the futures market:
WTI crude prices turn lower amid hope that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will increase soon
Treasury yields have downshifted with oil prices
Gains in mega-cap stocks
Technical interest as S&P 500 probes support at 200-day moving average (6607)
The Trump administration plans to announce a multi-country coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement could be made this week. WSJ
President Trump in an interview says Iran is ready to negotiate a ceasefire, but he is not ready to make a deal because “the terms aren’t good enough yet.” He also said he is working with countries to secure the Strait of Hormuz. NBC News
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says he is open to “any regional initiative” to end war, but no specific proposal has been made. Bloomberg
The U.S. attacked military sites on Iran’s Kharg Island, and President Trump warned oil infrastructure on the island will be targeted unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Iran threatened to attack oil facilities in the Middle East if Kharg oil infrastructure is targeted. Pentagon deploying 5,000 additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East. NBC News
Energy Secretary Chris Wright, in an interview, says the Iran war will “certainly come to an end in the next few weeks.” He thinks the Strait of Hormuz will be opened in the “not too distant future.” ABC News
President Trump might delay the summit with Chinese President Xi due to the Iran war. FT
Airlines urge Congress to fund DHS as airport disruptions continue. Reuters
FCC Chair Brendan Carr, in an interview, says broadcast licenses could be revoked over news coverage. CBS News
The Commerce Department plans to withdraw the rule on AI exports. Reuters
This week will feature 16 central bank policy decisions, including updates from the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Japan
Finance ministers from Japan and South Korea issued a joint statement on defending their currencies from excessive weakness
February Chinese Industrial Production 6.3% yr/yr (expected 5.3%; last 5.2%); February Retail Sales 2.8% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 0.9%); February Fixed Asset Investment 1.8% yr/yr (expected -5.0%; last -3.8%)
Dollar Tree (DLTR) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY27 EPS in-line, revs in-line
Intuit (INTU) will soon announce accelerated pace of its stock buybacks and end to scheduled stock sales, according to WSJ
Meta (META) planning large layoffs amid high costs for artificial intelligence. Reuters
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) signs new AI infrastructure agreement with Meta (META)
Nvidia (NVDA) aiming to introduce a new artificial intelligence “inference” chip at GTC event this week. FT; CEO Jensen Huang to deliver keynote address at GTC Conference today at 2:00 p.m. ET
Brokerage research calls of note:
Upgrades: BAYRY, CABGY, CRCL, ECL, INTU, LFMD, PFSI, RBGLY, RKT, SMHI, SMPL, TTD, UPST
Downgrades: ADBE, ALNY, BDRFY, ONC, DIDIY, HAIN, IMCR, INCY, KLC, NGG, NLCP, QCOM, SMMT
WTI crude futures -1.5% to $97.27/bbl; nat gas futures -0.8% to $3.10/mmbtu; copper futures +0.5% to $5.78/lb; gold futures -1.1% to $5007.90/toz; silver futures -2.7% to $79.15/toz
2-yr note yield -6 bps to 3.67% and 10-yr note yield -6 bps to 4.23%
The U.S. Dollar Index -0.4% to 99.98
Today’s economic data: March Empire State Manufacturing at 8:30 a.m. ET; February Industrial Production at 9:15 a.m. ET
Mortgage Rates
“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage returned to last month’s level of 6.11%,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Despite the modest uptick, buyers are responding to rates in this range, with existing-home sales increasing 1.7% in February. Purchase applications also increased this week, a welcome sign as buyers enter spring homebuying season with rates down more than half a percentage point compared to the same time last year.”
The 30-year FRM averaged 6.11% as of March 12, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.00%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.65%.
The 15-year FRM averaged 5.50%, up from last week when it averaged 5.43%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.80%.
Selected Cryptocurrencies
| Symbol | Name | Price | 24h % | 7d % | Market Cap | Volume(24h) |
| BTC | Bitcoin | $73,588.95 | 2.41% | 8.50% | $1,471,981,167,719 | $42,632,182,605 |
| ETH | Ethereum | $2,270.82 | 7.10% | 13.80% | $274,070,230,695 | $28,728,762,832 |
| BNB | BNB | $677.49 | 2.48% | 8.07% | $92,381,543,278 | $2,095,256,760 |
| XRP | XRP | $1.47 | 3.79% | 9.07% | $90,079,326,954 | $3,111,171,648 |
| SOL | Solana | $93.84 | 6.01% | 12.23% | $53,617,577,216 | $5,056,511,179 |
| TRX | TRON | $0.30 | 0.12% | 4.42% | $28,249,988,131 | $437,108,640 |
| DOGE | Dogecoin | $0.10 | 3.63% | 10.49% | $15,333,775,753 | $1,910,199,218 |
| ADA | Cardano | $0.29 | 7.41% | 11.82% | $10,302,841,332 | $895,932,943 |
| HYPE | Hyperliquid | $39.56 | 4.92% | 26.01% | $10,174,571,684 | $338,106,454 |
| BCH | Bitcoin Cash | $474.17 | 1.15% | 5.45% | $9,487,328,150 | $322,569,051 |
| LEO | UNUS SED LEO | $9.00 | -0.74% | -0.58% | $8,295,180,599 | $629,951 |
| LINK | Chainlink | $9.66 | 4.13% | 9.94% | $6,842,738,442 | $916,411,860 |
| XMR | Monero | $362.88 | 1.33% | 5.57% | $6,693,960,487 | $73,855,929 |
| USDe | Ethena USDe | $1.00 | 0.01% | 0.07% | $5,920,990,866 | $120,035,834 |
| CC | Canton | $0.15 | 0.35% | 3.87% | $5,820,711,095 | $9,460,590 |
| XLM | Stellar | $0.17 | 2.42% | 14.65% | $5,661,696,747 | $141,743,220 |
| DAI | Dai | $1.00 | -0.01% | -0.03% | $5,364,754,645 | $220,387,183 |
| USD1 | World Liberty Financial USD | $1.00 | -0.05% | -0.09% | $4,566,857,258 | $1,518,814,439 |
5:00 AM PDT, Monday, March 16, 2026. Source: https://coinmarketcap.com
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Sources: Bill Roller, BR Capital, Inc. dba Beacon Rock Wealth Advisors American Association for Individual Investors (AAII), Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Briefing.com, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, FactSet, Financial Times, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, MarketfieldAsset Management, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, PIMCO, Standard & Poor’s, StockCharts.com, The Conference Board, Thomson Reuters, T. Rowe Price, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post. Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return/excluding dividends. Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.
The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness. All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product BR Capital, Inc. dba Beacon Rock Wealth Advisors is a registered investment advisor.
Notes key: (+) positive/encouraging development, (0) neutral/inconclusive/no net effect, (-) negative/discouraging development.