Weekly Update 5/4/2026

May 4, 2026

Your Weekly Update for Monday, May 4, 2026.

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Have a great week!

Bill Roller
NMLS #107972
CHARTERED FINANCIAL ANALYST
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERTM
CHARTERED MARKET TECHNICIAN
bill.roller@beaconrwa.com

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Summary

Markets were UP last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was UP 0.55% to 49,499.27 while the S&P500 ended UP 0.91% to 7,230.12. The Nasdaq Composite ROSE 1.12% to 25,114.44. The annual yield on the 30-year Treasury ROSE 5.0 basis point(s) to 4.966%.

Economic Notes

  1. Closing Summary: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notch record highs on mega-cap growth
  2. The S&P 500 (+0.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) started May on a high note as strength in mega-cap and tech names propelled the indices to fresh record highs, while the DJIA (-0.3%) lagged amid weakness in the broader market.
  3. Only two S&P 500 sectors finished in positive territory, though the top-weighted information technology sector’s (+1.4%) gain was wide enough to prompt index-level growth.
  4. Apple (AAPL 14, +8.79, +3.24%) kept momentum rolling across mega-cap tech after topping earnings estimates and providing upside guidance for the next quarter, while Microsoft (MSFT 414.20, +6.42, +1.57%) recovered some of yesterday’s post-earnings weakness.
  5. Though not a component of the S&P 500, Atlassian (TEAM 88, +20.29, +29.58%) was another notable earnings standout, and the iShares GS Software ETF finished 3.2% higher.
  6. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.9%) also finished higher amid a busy week for memory storage names. Sandisk (SNDK 00, +90.49, +8.25%) moved sharply higher after earnings while Western Digital (WDC431.52, -3.00, -0.69%) faced some sell-the-news pressure, and Seagate Tech (STX 726.93, +53.29, +7.91%) extended yesterday’s massive rally.
  7. The consumer discretionary sector (+0.5%) was the only other sector to finish with a gain, supported by strength in its mega-cap components Tesla (TSLA 82, +9.19, +2.41%) and Amazon (AMZN 268.26, +3.20, +1.21%).
  8. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.9% higher, helping the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.3%) outperform the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.3%).
  9. Elsewhere in the sector, cruise lines and courier names outperformed as oil prices retreated today, with crude oil futures settling today’s session $3.31 lower (-3.2%) at $101.84 per barrel.
  10. The energy sector (-1.3%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 sector as a result.
  11. The industrials sector (-0.9%) also underperformed after yesterday’s sharp gain that followed CAT’s earnings release, though airline names such asUnited Airlines (UAL 52, +2.52, +2.80%) and Southwest Air (LUV 38.76, +0.84, +2.22%) traded higher amid the retreat in oil prices and reports that Spirit Airlines is preparing to shut down operations.
  12. Losses across the other S&P 500 sectors were modest in nature as the market ended the week in a relatively quiet fashion after a record-setting week.
  13. Still, strong mega-cap and tech leadership, which was largely a product of impressive earnings growth, has the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pushing further into record territory to start the month of May.
  14. S. Treasuries started May on a quiet note, largely thanks to Labor Day closures that significantly reduced the participation of international investors on Friday. The 2-year note yield settled up one basis point to 3.89% (+11 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled down one basis point to 4.38% (+7 basis points this week).
  15. Russell 2000: +13.3% YTD
  16. S&P Mid Cap 400: +10.1% YTD
  17. Nasdaq Composite: +8.1% YTD
  18. S&P 500: +5.6% YTD
  19. DJIA: +3.0% YTD
  20. Reviewing Friday’s data:
  21. April S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI – Final 54.5; Prior 54.0
  22. April ISM Manufacturing Index 52.7% (Briefing.com consensus 53.1%); Prior 52.7%–
    1. The key takeaway from the report is that it had some stagflation aspects for the manufacturing sector, namely low growth, a further contraction in employment, and a stark increase in the prices index, which has risen 25.6 percentage points in the last three months.
  23. Overseas:
  24. Europe: DAX +1.4%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC market closed
  25. Asia: Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng market closed, Shanghai market closed
  26. Commodities
  27. Crude Oil -3.31 @ 101.84
  28. Nat Gas +0.02 @ 2.78
  29. Gold +12.50 @ 4643.40
  30. Silver +2.35 @ 76.41
  31. Copper +0.01 @ 5.99

Market Notes

  1. The S&P 500 futures are 0.1% below fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are 0.1% above fair value; and the DJIA futures are 0.3% below fair value
  2. Key factors driving the futures market:
    1. Geopolitical angst driving up oil prices
    2. Concerns about market being overextended after five straight weekly gains for S&P 500 and Nasdaq (and six straight for Russell 2000)
  3. President Trump tells reporters that new military strikes are possible if Iran “misbehaves.” U.S. & Iran are still exchanging drafts of a framework agreement to end the war, but President Trump says he can’t imagine that Iran’s current offer will be acceptable. Axios
  4. S. Central Command says “No U.S. Navy ships have been struck. U.S. forces are supporting Project Freedom and enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports”
  5. An historically small number of seats will decide control of the House in November. Bloomberg
  6. S. crude oil exports reached a record 5.2 million barrels per day in April. CNBC
  7. Iran’s oil exports have plunged due to the U.S. naval blockade, and Iran has begun curbing production. Bloomberg
  8. Iran threatens to retaliate after President Trump’s “Project Freedom” plan to guide stranded neutral ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington Post
  9. Banks looking for ways to offload data center debt. FT
  10. OPEC+ agrees to 188,000 bpd production increase
  11. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr says private credit stress could spark a “psychological contagion.” Bloomberg
  12. Airlines cutting flights amid fuel shortage concerns. FT; Spirit Airlines permanently shuts down operations
  13. The auto industry facing aluminum shortages, which is impacting Ford (F)F-150. WSJ
  14. eBay (EBAY): GameStop (GME)proposes $56 bln, or $125.00 per share, cash and stock bid to acquire eBay
  15. Exxon (XOM)looking seriously at Venezuela after earlier telling President Trump that the country was uninvestable. Bloomberg
  16. Global Business Travel Group’s (GBTG)American Express Global Business Travel to be acquired by Long Lake Management for $9.50 per share in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $6.3 billion
  17. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) beats by $0.09, misses on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus
  18. Brokerage research calls of note:
    1. Upgrades: ACHC, ABNB, AMZN, CWST, CELC, ESS, GFS, IP, BEKE, OI, PKG, SITE, TD, TTD
    2. Downgrades: ARE, AMD, CHKP, PRU, VITL
  19. WTI crude futures +2.0% to $103.99/bbl; nat gas futures +1.5% to $2.82/mmbtu; copper futures -1.5% to $5.90/lb; gold futures -1.6% to $4571.20/toz; silver futures -3.4% to $73.84/toz
  20. 2-yr note yield +3 bps to 3.92% and 10-yr note yield +2 bps to 4.40%
  21. The U.S. Dollar Index +0.3% to 98.43
  22. Fed speakers: New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) at 12:50 p.m. ET
  23. Today’s economic data: March Factory Orders at 10:00 a.m. ET

Mortgage Rates

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.30% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As rates had modestly declined the last few weeks, purchase demand has accelerated with purchase applications rising to over 20 percent above a year ago. It is clear that purchase demand continues to hold up as prospective buyers react to both modestly lower rates and more inventory to choose from than the last few years.”

The 30-year FRM averaged 6.30% as of April 30, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.23%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.76%.

The 15-year FRM averaged 5.64%, up from last week when it averaged 5.58%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.92%.

Mortgage Rates

Selected Cryptocurrencies

Symbol Name Price 24h % 7d % Market Cap Volume(24h)
BTC Bitcoin $78,975.55 0.28% 1.58% $1,581,368,678,513 $42,417,394,171
ETH Ethereum $2,341.55 0.68% 1.10% $282,596,317,276 $20,626,481,078
XRP XRP $1.39 -0.11% -1.30% $86,197,296,377 $2,099,444,591
BNB BNB $623.05 0.64% -0.56% $83,979,295,608 $2,012,119,257
SOL Solana $84.07 -0.04% -1.21% $48,456,829,507 $4,538,619,773
TRX TRON $0.34 0.48% 3.94% $32,047,654,536 $753,000,583
DOGE Dogecoin $0.11 1.27% 12.33% $17,034,562,752 $2,215,427,348
HYPE Hyperliquid $41.42 0.84% -1.92% $10,554,397,590 $271,201,036
LEO UNUS SED LEO $10.31 0.03% -0.19% $9,501,255,759 $408,106
ADA Cardano $0.25 -0.69% 0.50% $9,002,308,830 $428,731,742
BCH Bitcoin Cash $444.60 -0.32% -0.86% $8,905,263,423 $219,599,286
XMR Monero $387.46 -2.04% -0.96% $7,147,408,463 $127,342,442
LINK Chainlink $9.43 2.66% 1.32% $6,863,506,390 $727,281,337
ZEC Zcash $409.23 3.28% 13.96% $6,817,552,172 $958,427,772
CC Canton $0.15 -1.18% -0.96% $5,668,229,966 $12,683,271
DAI Dai $1.00 0.01% -0.01% $5,364,472,405 $104,577,820
XLM Stellar $0.16 -1.20% -5.56% $5,266,691,757 $115,540,849
USD1 World Liberty Financial USD $1.00 -0.02% -0.01% $4,511,290,009 $966,037,840

Data as of 5:34 AM PDT, Monday, May 4, 2026. Source: https://coinmarketcap.com

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Sources: Bill Roller, BR Capital, Inc. dba Beacon Rock Wealth Advisors American Association for Individual Investors (AAII), Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Briefing.com, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, FactSet, Financial Times, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, MarketfieldAsset Management, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, PIMCO, Standard & Poor’s, StockCharts.com, The Conference Board, Thomson Reuters, T. Rowe Price, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post. Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return/excluding dividends. Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.

The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness. All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product BR Capital, Inc. dba Beacon Rock Wealth Advisors  is a registered investment advisor.

Notes key: (+) positive/encouraging development, (0) neutral/inconclusive/no net effect, (-) negative/discouraging development.