Your Weekly Update for Monday, April 14, 2025.
Beacon Rock Wealth Advisors is a dba of BR Capital, Inc. is a financial planning and registered investment advisory firm in Camas, Washington. We are always available to answer your finance questions. Give us a call at (360) 735-1900 or send an email.
If you or someone you know is worried about retirement, send us an email or give us a call for a no-obligation Retirement and Social Security Analysis.
If this information is helpful to you, please forward this to a friend and ask them to subscribe at https://newsletters.beaconrwa.com/subscribe.
Have a great week!
Mike Elerath
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERTM
CERTIFIED IN LONG-TERM CARE
[email protected]
Bill Roller
NMLS #107972
CHARTERED FINANCIAL ANALYST
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERTM
CHARTERED MARKET TECHNICIAN
[email protected]
For more information about Beacon Rock Wealth Advisors, check out our brochure here: https://beaconrwa.com/beaconrockbrochure/
Markets are closed on Good Friday, April 18. Have a Happy Easter!
Click on the image below to go to https://youtu.be/P3RSmu6uSWk to see the video from April 10 in which Mike Elerath, Bill Roller, and Keller Williams Realtor Michael Harding discuss the financial markets and Clark County real estate.
Please give the video a âLikeâ and check out other videos and subscribe to the channel at https://www.youtube.com/@beaconrwa.
Summary
Markets were UP last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was UP 4.95% to 40,212.71 while the S&P500 ended UP 5.70% to 5,363.36. The Nasdaq Composite ROSE 7.29% to 16,424.46. The annual yield on the 30-year Treasury ROSE 48.9 basis point(s) to 4.877%.
Economic data included a significant pause in the U.S. administrationâs total tariff policy, resulting in some relief of recession fears for now. Consumer price inflation came in slower than expected, with the year-over-year rates also declining, as did producer price inflation to some degree. Consumer sentiment remained poor, with inflation expectations rising sharply.
Global stock markets experienced one of the more volatile weeks in many years, but ended on a positive note largely due to Wednesdayâs gains as a pause for some tariffs was announced. Bonds fell sharply due to a spike in longer-term U.S. Treasury yields. Commodities were mixed to higher, helped by a falling dollar and flight to quality in precious metals.
Economic Notes
(+) The consumer price index reversed course in March, by falling a downwardly-rounded -0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Removing food and energy, core CPI rose an upwardly-rounded 0.1%, also decelerating from the prior month, and lower than the 0.3% expected. The key drivers included a -2.4% drop in energy prices (-6.3% for gasoline), which offset 0.4% higher food costs. Price gains for the month included the segments of personal care (notably financial services and tax prep fees up nearly 10% for the month), medical care, education, apparel, and new cars/trucks. Price declines were most pronounced in airline fares (-5%), hotels (-4%), auto insurance, used cars/trucks, and recreation. There appeared to be some signs of softer government and business travel, as well as a negative impact from foreign tourism falling along with the political fallout from tariff policy. The shelter segment continued to decelerate (rising 0.2%, at roughly half the pace of a few months ago), and helping to stabilize core CPI a bit, with other factors taking greater precedence.
On a year-over-year basis, headline and core CPI decelerated by several tenths of a percent each to 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively. This included a -3% drop in energy prices for the year (-10% for gasoline) and a 3% rise for food. The increase in core CPI was the lowest since March 2021, in the aftermath of the pandemic; but ironically lurking are more supply chain pressures looking ahead potentially brought on by tariffs this time. On the bright side, any upcoming inflation pressure is starting from a far lower base than even a year ago, and includes far lower energy prices, which have been pulled down with concerns about global demand along with ample oil production and supplies (which is much preferred to a geopolitical situation resulting in an energy price spike).
(0) The producer price index for March fell by -0.4%, in contrast to an expected 0.2% increase, representing the first monthly drop in a year and a half. Removing food and energy, core PPI declined by -0.1%. The overall figure included declines of -4% in energy and -2% in food during the month, as well as segments like passenger airfares, which also fell -4%. Year-to-date, headline and core PPI rose 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively. This included a 0.9% rise in the price of goods and 3.6% for services, with inflation focused on private capital equipment and government-purchased equipment, which includes defense goods. PPI is even closer to the front lines of changing tariff policy, so it could be expected to see an interesting few upcoming months, as companies are forced to accept higher costs and/or make arrangements in production and shipping to minimize the potential damage, if possible.
(-) The preliminary Univ. of Michigan index of consumer sentiment for April fell by -6.2 points to 50.8, below the median forecast calling for 53.8. Within the report, assessments of present conditions as well as expectations for the future both fell by roughly similar degrees, with the former slightly worse than the latter. If preliminary reading continues through to the monthâs final report, it will represent the second lowest result in the history of the series. Inflation expectations for the coming year rose by 1.7% from the prior month to an extreme 6.7%, while those for the next 5-10 years ticked up by 0.3% to 4.4%. For the one-year inflation figure, it would be the highest since the early 1980s if it persists through the final survey release. As this sentiment survey also reports by political persuasion, consumer sentiment over the trailing three months has fallen for Democrats, Independents, and also Republicans more recently (all by 5-10%); however, Democrats and Independents are far more worried about long-term inflation, with only Republicans expecting a below-average inflation outcome over that time. The connection of disenchantment with trade policy/tariffs is fairly obvious, with many, rightly or wrongly, of the mindset that such policies will result in high inflation for a long-standing timeframe.
(0) Initial jobless claims for the Apr. 5 ending week showed a slight rise of 4k to 223k, on par with the median forecast. Continuing claims for the Mar. 29 week fell by -43k to 1.850 mil., well below 1.886 mil. consensus expectation. The rise in claims was primarily from CA, while accompanying data showed a continued tempered level of new claims from Federal workers.
(0) The FOMC minutes from the March meeting, which featured no action, were primarily focused on âuncertaintyââone of the most frequently-used words this year so far. The uncertainty surrounded government policy actions, which led the committee to a âcautiousâ approach, waiting for âmore clarityâ with no hard data yet to act on, although business contacts in several Fed districts noted that planned tariffs were âlarger and broaderâ than they expected. Though, âa majorityâ of members project that inflation could be âmore persistentâ than they projected earlier if policy changes were to be implemented and remain in place, which is assumed to be a key discussion item, along with recent âuncertaintyâ weighing on their forward-looking GDP projections.
Market Notes
| Period ending 4/11/2025 | 1 Week % | YTD % |
| DJIA | 4.97 | -5.04 |
| S&P 500 | 5.73 | -8.47 |
| NASDAQ | 7.30 | -13.23 |
| Russell 2000 | 1.83 | -16.28 |
| MSCI-EAFE | 0.82 | 2.41 |
| MSCI-EM | -3.83 | -2.20 |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate | -2.54 | 1.06 |
| U.S. Treasury Yields | 3 Mo. | 2 Yr. | 5 Yr. | 10 Yr. | 30 Yr. |
| 12/31/2024 | 4.37 | 4.25 | 4.38 | 4.58 | 4.78 |
| 4/4/2025 | 4.28 | 3.68 | 3.72 | 4.01 | 4.41 |
| 4/11/2025 | 4.34 | 3.96 | 4.15 | 4.48 | 4.85 |
U.S. stocks earned surprisingly solid positive returns on net last week, with several daily price swings dominated by Wednesdayâs explosive gains. Sector results were led by technology (up nearly 10%), industrials, and financials, while energy and defensive consumer staples and health care lagged with far lesser gains of a few percent. Real estate declined only slightly, despite the spike in yields.
U.S. stocks havenât experienced this much day-to-day (or hour-to-hour) volatility in years, by some measures since the fall of 1987, Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and 2020 pandemicâcomparisons that have unnerved many investors. The primary driver has obviously been the âuncertaintyâ and real-time changes in the U.S. administrationâs tariff policy. Practically daily, these have included steadfast or escalations in tariff stances corresponding to drawdowns and signs of relief or pause reverting to temporary euphoria. Based on estimates from Goldman Sachs, the ending tariff rate could well remain far higher than it was, but stopping at a weighted average of around 15%, as opposed to the earlier estimates of 20-25%. So, a strain on the economy and inflation no doubt, but not quite as bad as the worst fears.
During the week, stocks had resumed their negative path from the prior week on Monday morning, down several percent further, but quickly flipped upward into positive territory with rumors of the White House implementing a 90-day pause on new tariff policy. Though, when that was dismissed as rumor (at least at that time, and perhaps spooking investors holding short positions as much as anyone), stocks reversed back into decline, but flip-flopped several times, on one of the more volatile days in a decade. While tariffs on China of an additional 50% were threatened, the latter vowed to âfight to the end,â with a U.S. tariff of 104% being imposed, followed by their own tariff of 84% on U.S. goods. (Chinese imports from the U.S. are relatively small in the whole scheme of global trade. However, U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports are expected to pull down Chinese GDP by several percentage pointsâwith growth there already being in a fragile state as of late. Likely, such pressure was precisely the point of the announcements.) Along with some apparent pushback from some well-known names in the financial community and Senate, not to mention rising interest rates, Wednesdayâs announcement of an actual 90-day pause in the country-specific tariffs (while keeping the 10% global minimum reciprocal rate) created the strongest upward day for the S&P 500 (+9.5%) since 2008 and 24 years for the Nasdaq (+12%). However, tariffs on China were taken up to 145%, and that reality hit home as tempered sentiment resulted with declines again on Thurs. The Chinese reciprocated to some extent, taking their tariff rate on the U.S. to 125%, but appeared to indicate that was the limit. Over the weekend, electronic products like smartphones and laptops were labeled as exempt from tariffs, with further clarity expected early this week.
In the wake of last weekâs market soap opera, investors continue to weigh the impacts of overall tariff rates on individual sectors and companies, complicated by a fast-changing environment with hopes for extensions and pauses in policy implementation. The backdrop includes a deep-seeded concern that the longer that robust tariff rates last, the higher the chances of moving straight into a U.S. recession (and potentially a global one as well). This has been viewed by many economists as an âown goalâ of sorts, with investors using the broad âuncertaintyâ cloud to pull back on risk generally until the dust clears, which could hinge on more substantive updates from the U.S. administration. That said, itâs again a reminder that markets dislike âuncertaintyâ much more than they dislike even terrible news, which can be digested more quickly. That said, recession odds appear to have risen, but perhaps still not over 50% at this point, according to a variety of economists.
Almost an afterthought, first quarter earnings reports for U.S. companies have just begun, with FactSet predicting 7% S&P 500 EPS growth for Q1, led by health care, technology, and utilities. Revenue growth of over 4% is expected for the index as well. The assumption is that Q1 might be largely disregarded, due to the intense investor focus on tariff impacts on future quarters and management tone around consumer spending sentiment and status of capex spending plans in light of current trade policies.
Developed market foreign stocks earned negative returns in local terms, while a decline in the U.S. dollar boosted Japan and Europe into the positive for U.S. investors. There were few unique stories other than a focus on impacts from U.S. tariffs as we might expect to see until greater clarity surfaces. This was particularly true in emerging markets, where Chinese stocks fell by around -8%, presumably due to the negative economic impact of a trade war.
Bonds also experienced a rough week, which was a bit mysterious to some observers, due to their more frequent role as a positive safe haven in times of stock market turmoil. While a drop in long-term yields the prior week appeared to be driven by the easier common explanation of weaker growth fears, last week was full of speculation about causes for the sharp upward move in rates. These included theories about general unwinding of U.S. assets by foreign investors, such as rumors of China dumping more of their already-shrinking U.S. Treasury holdings. Itâs worthwhile noting that moves of that magnitude could be a double-edged sword to some degree, as a large owner of Treasuries would also need to find another asset capable of absorbing as much liquidity and providing the same safe haven benefits that U.S. government bonds do. (There arenât many lower-risk/high credit quality assets in the world that can fulfill both criteria.) This decline in Chinese holdings of U.S. debt has already been a work in progress for a decade, as their rank as a percentage of total foreign owners has fallen from $1.3 trillion (or 20% of total foreign ownership) around the peak in late 2013, to around $750 bil. today (less than 10% of foreign ownership). Also, much of the Treasury debt they do own has a maturity of 5 years or less. Other immediate causes of the yield spike have allegedly been due to some institutional forced sales in efforts to raise cash. As with several prior volatility episodes (albeit more extreme, LTCM in 1998 and the GFC in 2008), even âsafeâ assets become pools of ready capital for meeting margin calls and other liquidity needs. These also include higher volatility from âbasisâ trades, where some market participants attempt to take advantage of yield differentials between Treasury bond spot and futures rates, and are often sharply leveraged, resulting in margin calls due to extremely high rate volatility.
Was the pause in tariff implementation by U.S. officials forced by higher U.S. Treasury funding rates? Given that no substantial country-specific concessions had been made prior, this seems at least partially at play. A larger open question has been a feared potential shift in foreign investor sentiment away from U.S. assets generally, seen somewhat with a reversal in the U.S. dollar back down from a recent cyclical peak (in contrast to a typical strengthening reaction to tariff announcements), with the USD index now down -7% year-to-date. The status of the USD as a global safe haven certainly may have eroded a bit, due to the recent trade policy aggressiveness and announcement inconsistency, as well as the appearance of self-inflicted damage to near-term U.S. economic growth relative to other regions. Long-term, though, as the largest and most liquid global bond market, the role remains little changed with few other competing alternatives with comparable size and scale.
Commodities were mixed last week, with a drop of several percent in the U.S. dollar, and sharp gains in precious metals as global investors sought a safe haven from volatility in both stocks and bonds. Gains were also seen in industrial metals and agriculture, while energy fell back. Crude oil prices fell a bit last week to $61/barrel, with volatility largely driven by wavering positive and negative sentiment surrounding global demand and recession risk, as with other risk assets, while natural gas prices fell even further.
Mortgage Rates
âThe average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continues to trend down, remaining under 7% for the twelfth consecutive week,â said Sam Khater, Freddie Macâs Chief Economist. âAs purchase applications continue to climb, the spring homebuying season is shaping up to look more favorable than last year.â
The 30-year FRM averaged 6.62% as of April 10, 2025, down from last week when it averaged 6.64%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.88%.
The 15-year FRM averaged 5.82%, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.16%.
Freddie Macâs Primary Mortgage Market SurveyÂŽ is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Through our relationship with Mortgage Window, Inc. (NMLS#2485156) in Vancouver, Washington we originate residential and reverse mortgages.
Selected Cryptocurrencies
| Symbol | Name | Price | 24h % | 7d % | Market Cap | Volume(24h) |
| BTC | Bitcoin | $84,853.93 | 0.50% | 10.66% | $1,684,448,615,698 | $31,801,915,368 |
| ETH | Ethereum | $1,673.94 | 4.52% | 12.92% | $202,029,843,744 | $17,560,233,903 |
| XRP | XRP | $2.15 | -1.87% | 22.40% | $125,617,576,974 | $3,935,287,759 |
| BNB | BNB | $592.22 | 0.78% | 9.72% | $84,375,187,628 | $1,384,286,117 |
| SOL | Solana | $133.49 | 3.40% | 33.70% | $68,893,485,604 | $4,300,447,828 |
| DOGE | Dogecoin | $0.17 | 0.66% | 20.16% | $24,692,391,448 | $954,525,961 |
| TRX | TRON | $0.26 | 4.50% | 14.30% | $24,424,552,646 | $789,658,113 |
| ADA | Cardano | $0.65 | -0.34% | 19.32% | $22,867,478,340 | $697,257,813 |
| LEO | UNUS SED LEO | $9.39 | -0.25% | 5.59% | $8,674,449,892 | $3,167,512 |
| LINK | Chainlink | $13.14 | 2.60% | 23.05% | $8,637,260,409 | $348,625,299 |
| AVAX | Avalanche | $20.48 | 2.67% | 32.87% | $8,520,589,833 | $363,372,466 |
| XLM | Stellar | $0.25 | -0.66% | 12.84% | $7,565,163,343 | $177,457,819 |
| SUI | Sui | $2.32 | 0.14% | 27.82% | $7,551,463,936 | $979,695,184 |
| SHIB | Shiba Inu | $0.00 | 0.60% | 13.65% | $7,267,082,103 | $178,941,009 |
| HBAR | Hedera | $0.17 | -1.40% | 24.26% | $7,144,754,869 | $266,320,848 |
| TON | Toncoin | $2.85 | -0.90% | -4.86% | $7,083,206,642 | $164,311,457 |
| BCH | Bitcoin Cash | $340.81 | -1.56% | 31.43% | $6,767,235,367 | $369,443,610 |
| LTC | Litecoin | $78.37 | -0.31% | 16.93% | $5,921,960,357 | $436,790,059 |
Information current as of 5:00 AM PDT, Monday, April 14, 2025. Source: https://coinmarketcap.com
Check us out at https://beaconrwa.com and our affiliated website at https://reverse-mortgages.us.
Sources: Ryan Long, CFA, FocusPoint Solutions, American Association for Individual Investors (AAII), Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, FactSet, Financial Times, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management,
MarketfieldAsset Management, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, PIMCO, Standard & Poorâs, StockCharts.com, The Conference Board, Thomson Reuters, T. Rowe Price, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post. Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return/excluding dividends. Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.
The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness. All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product. FocusPoint Solutions, Inc. is a registered investment advisor.
Notes key: (+) positive/encouraging development, (0) neutral/inconclusive/no net effect, (-) negative/discouraging development.